I am currently at the Adobe Creative Suite 3 Launch Seminar at CinemaxX, Fisketorvet, Copenhagen, Denmark. I've been here since 09:00 watching the Adobe employees presenting their new creations.
It is very impressive. Profoundly riveting. Neigh unbelieveable. They have made many changes to their immense software line-up, and while none of them are particularly earth-shattering, it is very impressive how well they've managed to get everything working together coherently.
The new features demonstrated today are going to save armies of artists, designers, developers and other professionals around the world hours of time, tonnes of work and a lot of heartburn.
So while I know that no hegemony lasts forever, Adobe is still going strong. And none of Microsofts effors (Silverlight etc.) is going to change that anytime soon.
Of course, I may be wrong, but even if the Microsofties suddenly become capable of creating innovative and exciting software again, they'll still have to wean off a generation of professionals that have grown up with Adobe and Macromedia, now united under a common banner -- Adobe.